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Prediction for CME (2023-07-28T22:36:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2023-07-28T22:36Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/26236/-1
CME Note: Asymmetric partial halo CME seen directed primarily towards the east in SOHO LASCO C2/C3 and STEREO A COR2. Source is a filament eruption centered around N25E25 with liftoff starting around 2023-07-28T21:10Z in SDO AIA 304. Dimming can be seen in SDO AIA 193. This eruption is also seen in STEREO A EUV and COR2 imagery after a data gap from 2023-07-28T20:05Z to 2023-07-29T01:05Z. Arrival signature: Two consecutive spikes of B_total to >11nT separated by 5 hours, the second one (at ~16Z) likely marking the start of the flux rope.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2023-08-01T10:08Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2023-08-01T02:00Z
Confidence that the CME will arrive: 70.0%
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 4.0 - 6.0
Prediction Method: Cone + HAF (SEPC, NSSC, CAS)
Prediction Method Note: 
Enter predicted CME shock arrival time:2023-08-01T02:00Z
Confidence that the CME will arrive:70%
Kp Range:4-6
Lead Time: 26.38 hour(s)
Difference: 8.13 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Jingjing Wang (NSSC SEPC) on 2023-07-31T07:45Z
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